On July 10, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, after the release of the Fed's June meeting minutes, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, which is basically the same as the probability of the previous day. It is worth noting that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 28.1%, a significant decrease from 35.4% the previous day. At the same time, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut increased from 60.8% the previous day to 67.2%.[BlockBeats]

Traders bet on a September rate cut after the Fed released minutes from its June meeting.

The Federal Reserve’s latest minutes, released Wednesday, show that most policymakers expect interest rate cuts to begin this year, possibly as soon as July 30. The minutes from the June 17–18 meeting confirmed the central bank kept its benchmark rate at 4.25% to 4.50%.  Fed Aligned On At Least One Rate Cut in 2025 Policymakers agreed inflation had eased but remained “somewhat elevated.” Also, uncertainty around the outlook had diminished , though not disappeared. Crucially, most participants said a rate cut would “likely be appropriate” in 2025. A few indicated they would consider cutting rates as early as the next meeting, if data trends continue. However, the minutes also highlighted divisions. Some Fed officials argued against any cuts this year , citing stubborn inflation and strong labor market resilience.  They warned that short-term inflation expectations remain elevated, especially among households and businesses. The Fed flagged recent tariff increases as a new source of inflation risk . While the majority believes these effects will be temporary or modest, several members expressed concern about possible second-order impacts on prices and expectations. For the crypto market, the dovish tilt reinforces investor optimism. Bitcoin and Ethereum remained steady near $109,000 and $2,700 respectively, as traders priced in the growing chance of monetary easing.  Lower interest rates typically benefit risk assets by improving liquidity and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding tokens. Still, market participants await key upcoming data—especially June’s CPI report due July 11—which could shape the Fed’s next move.  Any sign of inflation stalling could delay cuts and dampen crypto momentum. Overall, the Fed signaled that the door is open to easing, but not yet unlocked.  Crypto markets will closely watch the July 30 meeting for confirmation, as monetary policy continues to be a key driver of digital asset performance in 2025.

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FOMC Minutes Hint at July 30 Rate Cut as Crypto Markets Hold Steady

According to Jinshi, the key points of the Fed's June meeting minutes are as follows: How much hope is there for a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump 1.0, receive? Both have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary. The wait-and-see period ends in the summer, and a rate cut is possible in September: The meeting minutes may suggest that "the interest rate trajectory will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end in late summer. The meeting minutes may indicate that the committee expects to obtain the data needed to make a rate cut decision before the end of the summer. If the situation meets expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September. The threshold for rate cuts is lowered: The Fed's June meeting minutes may read more dovish. At the June meeting, Powell tended to use neutral language, but the meeting minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for rate cuts is falling. Clues to internal divisions: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed that no rate cuts would be needed this year, 2 expected one rate cut, 8 believed in two rate cuts, and 2 expected three rate cuts. Analysts will look for clues as to what is causing this divergence. What supports the views of the 7 Fed officials who believe there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025? Concerns about the dual mandate: Previous Fed economic forecasts showed that the pace of price increases will accelerate in the remaining months of this year, but in 2026, even if interest rates are expected to fall, the pace of price increases will fall again. Also, pay attention to whether there are serious concerns about the strength of the job market. [ChainCatcher]

Key focus of the Fed's June meeting minutes: The wait-and-see period ends in the summer, and a rate cut may occur in September

On July 9th, Jinshi Data released the key points of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes:

1. How likely is a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump 1.0, receive? Both have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and that the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary.
2. The wait-and-see period ends in the summer, with a possible rate cut in September: The meeting minutes may suggest that "the interest rate trajectory will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end in late summer. The meeting minutes may indicate that the committee expects to obtain the data needed to make a rate cut decision before the end of the summer. If the situation meets expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September.
3. Lowering the threshold for rate cuts: The Fed's June meeting minutes may read more dovish. At the June meeting, Powell tended to use neutral language, but the meeting minutes could better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for rate cuts is falling.
4. Clues to internal divisions: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed that no rate cuts were needed this year, 2 expected one rate cut, 8 believed in two rate cuts, and 2 expected three rate cuts. Analysts will look for clues as to what is causing this division. What supports the view of the 7 Fed officials who believe there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025?
5. Concerns about the dual mandate: Previous Fed economic forecasts showed that the rate of price increases will accelerate in the remaining months of this year, but in 2026, even if interest rates are expected to fall, the rate of price increases will fall again. Also, pay attention to whether there are serious concerns about the strength of the job market. (Jinshi Data APP) [Deep Tide TechFlow]

Key Focus of the Federal Reserve's June Meeting Minutes

On July 9 (UTC+8), Citi analysts said they expect the meeting minutes to suggest that "the interest rate trajectory will depend on the data released in June, July and August," which is consistent with Fed Chairman Powell's remarks at the congressional hearing. Powell laid the groundwork for a possible rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, provided that tariff-induced price increases do not show signs of causing sustained inflation and that the economy continues to create enough jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising too quickly. Citi analysts said: "The 'wait-and-see' period may end in late summer." (Source: Bitpush) [MetaEra]

Citi: Fed Minutes May Echo Powell's Testimony, "Wait-and-See" Period May End in Late Summer

Citi analysts said they expect the meeting minutes to suggest "the rate path will be data dependent on data released in June, July and August," consistent with Fed Chairman Powell's comments at his congressional hearing. Powell laid the groundwork for a possible rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, provided that tariff-induced price increases do not show signs of causing sustained inflation and that the economy continues to create enough jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising too quickly. "The 'wait-and-see' period is likely to end in late summer," Citi analysts said. (Golden Ten) [Odaily Planet Daily]

Citi: Fed minutes may echo Powell's testimony, "wait-and-see" period may end in late summer

The minutes containing the details of the FED's interest rate decision meeting in June were shared with the public. Here are all the details from the FED minutes: All participants thought it appropriate to keep the federal funds rate within its current target range. Several participants noted that the current federal funds rate may not be significantly above the neutral interest rate. Fed staff expect real GDP growth in 2025 to be higher than previous estimates and inflation to be lower than previous projections. Participants assessed that uncertainty in the economic outlook has decreased as a result of the announced and expected customs duty reductions, but overall uncertainty remains high. Many officials believe that tariffs could lead to persistent inflation risks. Most participants thought the federal funds rate should be lowered appropriately this year. Several participants indicated they might consider a rate cut at the July meeting if data develops as expected. Participants agreed that the risks of rising inflation and weakening the labor market have diminished but remain elevated. Some participants said that the most appropriate path would be to not cut interest rates in 2025. The fact that Fed members Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair of Supervision, suggested that a rate cut might be considered at the July meeting was particularly noteworthy. Both were appointed during President Donald Trump's first term. At its June meeting, the Fed held its policy rate steady at 4.25%-4.50%. However, the minutes were released retroactively because they came after the meeting three weeks earlier. This means they predate both the release of the strong June jobs report and Trump's threat to impose new 25% tariffs on major trading partners like Japan and South Korea starting August 1st. While Trump's calls for the central bank to cut interest rates continue, market data, including both inflationary pressures and slowing employment growth, present the Fed with a dilemma. The Fed is trying to maintain its 2% inflation target while simultaneously pursuing its mission to keep unemployment low. *This is not investment advice.

BREAKING: Much Anticipated FED Minutes Have Been Released – Here Are All the Details

July 9 (UTC+8), July 9, recent dot plots revealed a clear division within the Federal Reserve. Some policymakers expect two rate cuts this year, while others predict no rate cuts at all. Morgan Stanley analysts say they will look for clues as to what is causing this divergence. More hawkish members may say they are waiting for unemployment to rise, or that they need more time to assess the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policies on inflation. Powell has said he expects the inflationary effects of tariffs to emerge this summer and suggested that the only obstacle between the Fed and easing policy is the uncertainty of these price pressures. If the minutes show some agreement with this view, it could signal a shift by the Fed to a more proactive stance. (Source: TechFlow) [MetaEra]

Morgan Stanley: Fed Minutes May Reveal Growing Divisions Within the Committee

On July 9th, according to Jinshi Data, the recent dot plot revealed a clear division within the Federal Reserve. Some policymakers anticipate two rate cuts this year, while others predict no rate cuts at all. Morgan Stanley analysts stated that they will be looking for clues as to what is causing this division. More hawkish members may indicate that they are waiting for the unemployment rate to rise, or that they need more time to assess the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policies on inflation. Powell has said that he expects the inflationary effects of tariffs to become apparent this summer, suggesting that the only obstacle between the Fed and easing policy is the uncertainty of these price pressures. If the meeting minutes show some agreement with this view, it could signal a shift by the Fed to a more proactive stance. [Deep Tide TechFlow]

Morgan Stanley: Fed minutes may reveal growing divisions within the committee

On July 9th, according to Jinshi Data, Citi analysts said that the Fed's June meeting minutes may read more dovish than Powell's press conference after the June interest rate meeting. At that meeting, Powell strongly favored using neutral language and emphasized the Fed's dual mandate. But the meeting minutes may better reflect what Powell didn't explicitly say: the threshold for rate cuts is falling. [Deep Tide TechFlow]

Citigroup: Fed minutes may indicate that the threshold for interest rate cuts is decreasing

On July 9th, according to Jinshi Data citing foreign media analysis, the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are scheduled to be released at 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday morning. At the June interest rate meeting, Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, and indicated that there may be two rate cuts before the end of the year. Investors will focus on signs in the meeting minutes that the Fed's wait-and-see phase is coming to an end. The June statement confirmed the improvement in inflation data, and the meeting minutes may further indicate that the committee expects to obtain the data needed to make a rate cut decision before the end of the summer. If the situation meets expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September. [Deep Tide TechFlow]

Analysis: Fed June Meeting Minutes May Reveal Possibility of September Rate Cut

7月10日，根据CME“Fed Watch”数据，在美联储公布6月会议纪要后，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为93.3%，与前一天的概率基本持平。 值得注意的是，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率降至28.1%，较前一天的35.4%显著下降。同时，降息25个基点的概率则从前一天的60.8%上升至67.2%。[BlockBeats]

在美联储公布6月会议纪要后，交易员们押注9月份将降息。

7月10日，根據CME“Fed Watch”數據，在美聯儲公佈6月會議紀要後，美聯儲7月維持利率不變的概率爲93.3%，與前一天的概率基本持平。 值得注意的是，美聯儲9月維持利率不變的概率降至28.1%，較前一天的35.4%顯著下降。同時，降息25個基點的概率則從前一天的60.8%上升至67.2%。[BlockBeats]