On July 9th, according to Jinshi Data, the recent dot plot revealed a clear division within the Federal Reserve. Some policymakers anticipate two rate cuts this year, while others predict no rate cuts at all. Morgan Stanley analysts stated that they will be looking for clues as to what is causing this division. More hawkish members may indicate that they are waiting for the unemployment rate to rise, or that they need more time to assess the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policies on inflation. Powell has said that he expects the inflationary effects of tariffs to become apparent this summer, suggesting that the only obstacle between the Fed and easing policy is the uncertainty of these price pressures. If the meeting minutes show some agreement with this view, it could signal a shift by the Fed to a more proactive stance. [Deep Tide TechFlow]

Morgan Stanley: Fed minutes may reveal growing divisions within the committee