Key focus of the Fed's June meeting minutes: The wait-and-see period ends in the summer, and a rate cut may occur in September

According to Jinshi, the key points of the Fed's June meeting minutes are as follows: How much hope is there for a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump 1.0, receive? Both have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary. The wait-and-see period ends in the summer, and a rate cut is possible in September: The meeting minutes may suggest that "the interest rate trajectory will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end in late summer. The meeting minutes may indicate that the committee expects to obtain the data needed to make a rate cut decision before the end of the summer. If the situation meets expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September. The threshold for rate cuts is lowered: The Fed's June meeting minutes may read more dovish. At the June meeting, Powell tended to use neutral language, but the meeting minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for rate cuts is falling. Clues to internal divisions: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed that no rate cuts would be needed this year, 2 expected one rate cut, 8 believed in two rate cuts, and 2 expected three rate cuts. Analysts will look for clues as to what is causing this divergence. What supports the views of the 7 Fed officials who believe there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025? Concerns about the dual mandate: Previous Fed economic forecasts showed that the pace of price increases will accelerate in the remaining months of this year, but in 2026, even if interest rates are expected to fall, the pace of price increases will fall again. Also, pay attention to whether there are serious concerns about the strength of the job market. [ChainCatcher]