July 9 (UTC+8), July 9, recent dot plots revealed a clear division within the Federal Reserve. Some policymakers expect two rate cuts this year, while others predict no rate cuts at all. Morgan Stanley analysts say they will look for clues as to what is causing this divergence. More hawkish members may say they are waiting for unemployment to rise, or that they need more time to assess the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policies on inflation. Powell has said he expects the inflationary effects of tariffs to emerge this summer and suggested that the only obstacle between the Fed and easing policy is the uncertainty of these price pressures. If the minutes show some agreement with this view, it could signal a shift by the Fed to a more proactive stance. (Source: TechFlow) [MetaEra]

Morgan Stanley: Fed Minutes May Reveal Growing Divisions Within the Committee