Based on current market positioning, a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is almost certain, Reuters' IFR reported.

The ADP and PMI data released today are not expected to be strong enough to prevent a December rate cut. November's ADP employment figures are projected to increase by 10,000, significantly lower than October's 42,000.

This month's ADP report is particularly important due to the delayed release of key labor market data caused by the government shutdown. Previously, the weekly ADP employment report had recorded negative figures for three consecutive weeks; however, it remains unclear how closely these figures match the actual monthly data.

[PANews]

On December 3, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after today's ADP data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 88.8% (pre-release: 89.2%), while the probability of holding rates steady is 11.2%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current rates through January is 29.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 63%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 7.8%.

The next two FOMC meetings will be held on December 10 and January 28, 2026.

[BlockBeats]

After the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December slightly decreased to 88.8%.

On December 3, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after today's ADP data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 88.8% (previously 89.2%), while the probability of holding rates steady is 11.2%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates unchanged until January is 29.5%, with a 63% chance of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points, and a 7.8% chance of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points.

The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for December 10 and January 28, 2026.

[BlockBeats]

On December 3, according to Jinshi Data, the current CME "Fed Watch" data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 88.8%, and the probability of maintaining the same interest rate is 11.2%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 63.0%, the probability of maintaining the same interest rate is 7.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%.

[深潮TechFlow]

After ADP release: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is basically the same as before the release.

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 88.8%, and the probability of maintaining unchanged interest rates is 11.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 63.0%, the probability of maintaining unchanged interest rates is 7.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 29.5%.

[Odaily]

The probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December remains largely unchanged after the ADP release compared to before.

On December 3, according to CME's "Fed Watch," before today's ADP data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 89.2%, while the probability of holding rates steady was 10.8%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by January next year was 66.6%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged was 7.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut was 25.7%.

[BlockBeats]

Before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 89.2%.

On December 3, according to CME's "Fed Watch," before the release of today's ADP data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 10.8%.

The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 66.6%, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 7.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 25.7%.

[律动]

On December 3, according to Jinshi Data, the current CME "Fed Watch" data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%, and the probability of maintaining the same interest rate is 10.8%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 66.6%, the probability of maintaining the same interest rate is 7.7%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 25.7%.

[深潮TechFlow]

Before ADP release: Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is 89.2%

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 10.8%. The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 66.6%, the probability of maintaining current rates is 7.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 25.7%. (Golden Ten)

[Odaily]

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December before ADP is released is 89.2%

On December 3, according to IFR, a media outlet under Reuters, judging from the current market positions, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is almost certain. The ADP data and PMI data to be released today are not expected to be strong enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in December.

The number of ADP employed people in November is expected to increase by 10,000, far lower than the 42,000 in October. This month's ADP report is particularly important because the government shutdown has delayed the release of key labor market data. Previously, the ADP weekly employment report had recorded negative values for three consecutive weeks, but it is not yet clear how well these data match the actual monthly data.

[律动]

Analysis: Today's ADP data unlikely to shake Fed's December rate cut expectations

On December 3, according to IFR, a media outlet under Reuters, current market positioning indicates that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December is nearly certain. Today's ADP and PMI data are unlikely to be strong enough to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December.

November's ADP employment change is expected to increase by 10,000, significantly lower than October's 42,000. Due to the government shutdown delaying the release of key labor market data, this month's ADP report is particularly important. Previously, the ADP weekly employment report recorded negative values for three consecutive weeks, although it remains unclear how well these figures align with actual monthly data.

[BlockBeats]

On December 3, according to IFR, a media outlet under Reuters, current market positioning indicates that a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is nearly certain. Today's ADP and PMI data are unlikely to be strong enough to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December.

November’s ADP employment change is expected to increase by only 10,000 jobs, far below October’s 42,000. Due to the government shutdown delaying the release of key labor market data, this month’s ADP report is particularly important.

Previously, the ADP weekly employment report has recorded negative figures for three consecutive weeks, though it remains unclear how closely these figures align with actual monthly data. (Jinshi Data)

[DeepTide TechFlow]

Analysis: The market is currently betting that the November ADP data is not enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in December.

The market is currently betting that the November ADP data will not be enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in December.

根据当前市场预期，美联储12月降息几乎已成定局，路透社IFR报道称。

今天公布的ADP和PMI数据预计不足以阻止12月降息。11月ADP就业人数预计增加1万，远低于10月的4.2万。

由于政府关门导致关键劳动力市场数据发布延迟，本月的ADP报告尤为重要。此前，周度ADP就业报告已连续三周录得负值；然而，这些数据与实际月度数据的吻合程度仍不明确。

[PANews]

目前市场押注 11 月份的 ADP 数据不足以阻止美联储在 12 月份降息。

路透社 IFR 報導，根據目前的市場定位，聯準會幾乎肯定會在 12 月降息。

今天發布的 ADP 和 PMI 數據預計不會強勁到足以阻止 12 月的降息。 11 月的 ADP 就業數據預計將增加 10,000 人，遠低於 10 月的 42,000 人。

由於政府關閉導致關鍵勞動力市場數據發布延遲，本月的 ADP 報告尤為重要。 之前，每週 ADP 就業報告曾連續三週錄得負值； 然而，這些數字與實際每月數據的匹配程度仍不清楚。

[PANews]