After the release of the ADP data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December slightly decreased to 88.8%.

On December 3, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after today's ADP data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 88.8% (pre-release: 89.2%), while the probability of holding rates steady is 11.2%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current rates through January is 29.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 63%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 7.8%.

The next two FOMC meetings will be held on December 10 and January 28, 2026.

[BlockBeats]