Analysis: The market is currently betting that the November ADP data is not enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in December.

On December 3, according to IFR, a media outlet under Reuters, current market positioning indicates that a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is nearly certain. Today's ADP and PMI data are unlikely to be strong enough to prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December.

November’s ADP employment change is expected to increase by only 10,000 jobs, far below October’s 42,000. Due to the government shutdown delaying the release of key labor market data, this month’s ADP report is particularly important.

Previously, the ADP weekly employment report has recorded negative figures for three consecutive weeks, though it remains unclear how closely these figures align with actual monthly data. (Jinshi Data)

[DeepTide TechFlow]