Traders are betting the Fed will cut rates at least once by year-end, possibly by as much as 50 basis points.

According to Jinshi, traders are starting to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once significantly before the end of the year, expecting policy to be more aggressive than other market watchers. Recent trading activity in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) shows that the market is increasing its bets on a half-percentage-point rate cut, which could occur at the meeting later this month or at the December meeting. This expectation exceeds the two 25 basis point rate cuts currently priced into interest rate swaps. [ChainCatcher]