Fed's Williams Talks Cooling Labor Market, Cautious on September Rate Cut Expectations

On August 2nd, according to Jinshi Data, Federal Reserve official and Powell ally Williams stated, "The labor market conditions I have observed over the past year can be described as 'moderate and gradual cooling,' but overall it remains in a stable state." Although the unemployment rate in July only slightly increased to 4.2% (4.1% in June), the relatively weak non-farm payroll data provided space for Powell to promote a consensus on interest rate cuts. Williams pointed out that the significant downward revisions to the employment growth data for May and June are the real focus of this report. He stated, "This information is crucial in helping us understand the direction of labor supply and demand, as well as the cooling trend in labor market momentum." Regarding the possibility of an interest rate cut in September, Williams remained cautious and did not endorse the market's once high expectation of 80% for a rate cut. He stated, "The challenges faced by market participants are the same as those we face as policymakers. I think the market's reaction to signals is understandable." Williams expects U.S. economic growth to slow to about 1% this year, but he believes the economy is expected to rebound in 2026. [Techflow]