The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 38.2%.

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 38.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 39.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 13.9%. [Odaily]