Key points of the Fed's July interest rate decision: Comparison of FOMC wording, Powell's term, and the Fed's independence

July 31st, a summary of the key points of the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision is as follows:

**FOMC Statement:**

1. Voting Ratio: The interest rate decision is likely to pass with a 9-2 voting ratio, with Governors Bowman and Waller expected to vote against it.

2. Wording Comparison: There are expected to be few substantive changes, or a simplified expression of uncertainty about the economic outlook, acknowledging the economic slowdown in the first half of the year.

3. Balance Sheet Reduction: It is highly likely to remain unchanged (reducing holdings of US Treasury bonds by $5.00B and MBS by $35.00B per month).

**Powell Press Conference:**

1. Interest Rate Outlook: How to view the "two rate cuts" expectation implied by the June dot plot? Will it give clues about the rate cut outlook in September?

2. Economic Data: It is expected to emphasize the importance of data and continue the communication style of data dependence and meeting-by-meeting decision-making.

3. Inflation and Tariffs: It may remain cautious and reiterate maintaining price stability; if it emphasizes the upward risk of tariffs on inflation, it may be more hawkish than expected.

4. Term and Independence: Facing frequent pressure from Trump, it is highly likely that he will not make a substantive response, and is expected to reiterate maintaining independence and professionalism during his term. [Golden Ten Data] [律动]