Goldman Sachs: Expects Trump administration to raise base tariff rate to 15%

Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, expects the U.S.'s base "like-for-like" tariff rate to increase from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and critical minerals reaching 50% - a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and dampen economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the impact of import tariffs in an "initial observation," Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth accordingly. Goldman Sachs lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its 2026 forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its 2027 forecast from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle said tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over 2-3 years. He added that tariffs would reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Goldman Sachs has accordingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0%. (Golden Ten) [Odaily Planet Daily News]