Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the Trump administration will raise the basic tariff rate to 15%

On July 23, according to Jinshi, David Mericle, chief economist of Goldman Sachs in the United States, expects that the basic "reciprocal" tariff rate in the United States will increase from 10% to 15%, of which copper and key mineral tariffs will reach 50% - this move may increase inflationary pressure and curb economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate "initial observations" on the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for US inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs lowered its core inflation forecast from 3.4% to 3.3% in 2025, raised its forecast from 2.6% to 2.7% in 2026, and raised its forecast from 2.0% to 2.4% in 2027. Mericle said that tariffs are expected to push up core prices by 1.7% cumulatively within 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Goldman Sachs accordingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0%. [PANews]