SoSoMacro | Trump Secures Asia Trade Wins as China Talks Loom

Trump secures Japan, Philippines trade deals; China-U.S. talks expected Monday; Powell addresses regulatory meeting.

Market Performance:

U.S. major indices mixed: Dow rises 0.40%, Nasdaq falls 0.39%, S&P 500 gains 0.06%

Chinese ADRs and Hong Kong stocks broadly higher

Asian markets broadly advance, European and emerging markets mixed

Here’s today’s SoSoMacro Recap — spotlighting the key signals driving markets at this moment:

1. U.S.-Japan trade agreement reached: Japan will pay 15% tariffs to the U.S. and open trade in automobiles and select agricultural products; Japan commits to $550 billion in U.S. investment.

2. U.S.-Philippines trade agreement: Philippines will pay 19% tariffs to the U.S., while Philippines commits to zero-tariff treatment for American goods.

3. China-U.S. talks: Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet with Chinese officials in Stockholm, Sweden next Monday and Tuesday. Goal is to extend the tariff suspension period originally set to expire August 12. Discussion topics also include China's oil imports from Russia and Iran, as well as trade barrier issues like rare earth exports.

4. Powell addresses regulatory meeting: Made no mention of monetary policy or interest rate expectations, nor responded to recent political controversy regarding Fed headquarters renovation costs.