📊 xWIN Index｜July 23, 2025 (7:00 JST)
🧮 xWIN Index Score: 77 / 100 (Down 4 points from the previous day)
※ This index is a short- to mid-term forecast indicator focused primarily on $BTC and $ETH, looking one month ahead.
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🔍 Market Overview (General Sentiment)
• Spot $ETH ETF inflows continue for the 12th consecutive day, but RSI approaches 78, indicating overbought conditions
• $BTC shows sideways to slightly corrective movement, amid FOMC-related risks and weakening demand
• Resignation speculation surrounding Fed Chair Powell intensifies, raising uncertainty in monetary policy
• Trump administration’s trade and tax plans ease US-based inflation fears
→ Overall, structural bullishness remains ETH-led, but the market is showing signs of entering a short-term cooling phase
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📉 Technical Indicators
• $BTC RSI: 71.0 (↓3.2) → Overbought correction progressing
• MACD (1H chart): Bearish crossover confirmed → Momentum weakening
• $BTC MVRV: 1.87 (↓0.02)
• Fear & Greed Index: 66 (↓2 | Greed)
• Open Interest: 658,230 $BTC (↓0.63%) → Ongoing cleanup in positions
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💵 Stablecoin Trends (as of 7:00 JST)
• $USDT Market Cap: $157.2B (↑0.13%)
• $USDC Market Cap: $65.2B (↑0.31%)
• JPYC Market Cap: $15.58M (↑0.26%)
→ Liquidity remains solid, but short-term traders show increasing caution
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🔎 Trending Topics on X (Past 24H)
• Square launches $BTC payments at physical stores → Major push for real-world adoption
• Sell wall of 260,000 $ETH appears between $3,850–$4,000 → Strong resistance
• SharpLink buys 80,000 additional $ETH, now holds over 360,000 $ETH → Corporate $ETH accumulation trend continues
• PNC Bank partners with Coinbase for $BTC transactions → Institutional adoption of Web3 accelerates
• $131M outflows from $BTC ETFs, $297M inflows to $ETH ETFs → Clear capital shift
• US Senate releases draft crypto market structure bill → Toward regulatory clarity
• Powell resignation rumors rise → Market reacts to growing uncertainty in Fed leadership
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✅ Overall Evaluation & Strategic Hints
• xWIN Score: 77 (↓4 from previous day)
• $BTC remains in short-term correction mode, with RSI and MACD flashing bearish signals
• $ETH fundamentals stay strong, but overbought signals and large sell wall demand caution
• Stablecoin supply and exchange volumes remain healthy, but overall momentum is weakening
• Upcoming White House–Fed meeting expected to be a major trigger for market direction
🎯 Key Support Zones:
BTC: $112,000–$113,500 ｜ ETH: $3,450–$3,600
🎯 Short-Term Profit-Taking Targets:
BTC: $119,000–$121,500 ｜ ETH: $3,950–$4,100