HTX DeepThink: Cooling Rate Cut Expectations May Pressure the Market, Overall Capital Structure Still Supports Mid-Term Bull Market

On July 17th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that as of July 17, 2025, the crypto market is under the multiple effects of "high volatility - policy game - macro traction", presenting a typical structural shock pattern. Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) remains at 38–39%, reflecting the market's high sensitivity to repeated inflation, delayed interest rate cut expectations, and legislative progress, with short-term funds preferring hedging and defensive strategies. CME Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) continues to rise, indicating that institutional investors prefer to conduct neutral or directional layouts on regulated platforms; on-chain data shows that Bitcoin is currently in the "long-term holders taking profits" stage, facing short-term callback pressure, but the medium and long-term capital structure remains sound.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book warned that "inflation may accelerate in late summer," cooling expectations for a September rate cut (probability dropped to about 60%). Although the June PPI fell and the core PCE was moderate, the CPI year-on-year is still as high as 2.7%, and overall inflationary pressure remains. The Federal Reserve may postpone the easing process, enhance the attractiveness of the dollar, and put pressure on the crypto market for a phased outflow of funds. At the same time, although the "CLARITY Act" and "GENIUS Act" promoted by the US Congress have not yet been formally passed, they have significantly boosted market confidence, helping Bitcoin rise to $123,000.0.
From the perspective of the options market and volatility structure, the market is in a "policy uncertainty risk pricing period", and the volatility premium is rising, especially in contracts expiring around July 25, where it is obvious. Investors generally use straddle or protective strategies to hedge against high volatility risks. On-chain data also shows that although some long-term holders have begun to realize profits, institutional wallets and ETF-related addresses still have continuous net inflows, and the overall capital structure supports the fundamentals of the mid-term bull market. [TechFlow]