SoSoMacro

China-U.S. relations continue to ease; U.S. June CPI largely meets expectations; U.S. reaches trade agreement with Indonesia.

Market Performance:

Here’s today’s SoSoMacro Recap — spotlighting the key signals driving markets at this moment:

1. China-U.S. relations continue to ease: U.S. government relaxes AI chip export controls on China, with Nvidia and AMD resuming AI chip sales to China; Treasury Secretary Bessent says no need to worry about the U.S.-China tariff suspension deadline, calling current negotiations "well-positioned," with talks expected in early August.

2. U.S. June CPI: Overall CPI mainly driven by one-time oil price surge due to escalating Middle East tensions; tariff impacts initially emerging in core goods but with moderate increases. Overall, June CPI largely meets expectations and won't affect Fed rate-cutting pace, still awaiting July-August inflation data.

3. Federal Reserve: Richmond Fed President Barkin says Fed needs to continue watching; Boston Fed President Collins suggests tariff impact on inflation may be weaker than expected, no rush to cut rates in July. Bessent announces Fed Chair succession process has begun.

4. Trade negotiations: Trump says trade agreement reached with Indonesia, with U.S. granting Indonesia 19% tariffs while Indonesia gives U.S. zero tariffs; Trump says may roll out pharmaceutical tariffs by end of July and may also tax semiconductors soon; EU confirms second batch of retaliatory measures worth 72 billion euros, still requires member state votes.