CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates a maximum of two times this year

CITIC Securities' research report points out that the U.S. inflation in June basically continued the "good old days" state. The core CPI month-on-month growth rate was lower than expected for the fifth consecutive month, mainly due to the cooling of rental inflation and used car prices. This soft core inflation cannot verify the conjecture that "tariffs have a slight impact on inflation." In fact, the "CPI with high import content" and other tracking indicators we constructed show that tariffs have initially affected the prices of import-sensitive consumer goods in the United States. We still believe that there are hidden dangers of a rebound in U.S. inflation. The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is small, and there will be at most two interest rate cuts within the year. The room for the dollar to continue to weaken may be limited, and the current allocation attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds may still not be very strong. (Golden Ten) [Odaily Planet Daily News]