Huatai Securities: Maintains its judgment of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December

Huatai Securities stated that looking ahead, tariff pass-through may further push up core goods inflation, but considering that the job market may slow down later, we maintain our judgment that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in September and December. June CPI data shows that inflation in goods with high import dependence has already rebounded, disproving the claim that overseas exporters are lowering prices and tariffs are not being passed on. Considering that the weighted average import tariff rate in the United States in May was only 8.7%, and some companies have delayed price transmission by depleting inventory, looking ahead, we expect the tariff's impact on inflation to become more apparent, which may push up U.S. inflation in the short term. The New York Fed's survey also corroborates that 88% of manufacturing companies and 82% of service companies chose to pass on tariffs to consumers within 3 months. At the Fed's FOMC press conference in June, Powell stated that the Fed needs to observe the impact of tariffs during the summer, and the rebound in inflation may already be within the Fed's expectations. [Odaily Planet Daily]