Bernstein expects 'long and exhausting' crypto bull market with Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by early 2026

As Bitcoin hit its latest in a series of recent all-time highs above $123,000 earlier Monday, analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said they expect a "long and exhausting crypto bull market" ahead, reiterating their prediction for the foremost cryptocurrency to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 or into early 2026.

With institutional adoption rather than just retail traders chasing higher prices now driving the market, "our conviction in blockchain and digital assets has never been higher," the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a Monday note to clients.

The current crypto cycle stands out for its institutional-led growth, clearer regulation, and government backing — a shift from past retail-driven booms, the analysts explained. They see blockchains forming a new internet-native financial system, with stablecoins already nearing a $250 billion market and gaining early use in cross-border payments. Crypto wallet adoption, still at around 50 million, is expected to grow sharply toward several hundred million as banks and businesses integrate, while real-world asset tokenization emerges as the next big trend, they said.

Bitcoin will continue to emerge as the world's hard-money reserve asset amid such institutional adoption, the analysts said. Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $150 billion in AUM — led by BlackRock's $84 billion IBIT — and corporate treasury allocations like Strategy's continue to grow, supporting a structural allocation trend that will push Bitcoin toward Bernstein's $200,000 target.

In the U.S., regulatory clarity is expected to accelerate adoption through the GENIUS and Clarity Acts, the analysts continued. These will position crypto-related firms like Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood as key regulated players: Circle as a regulated stablecoin leader, and Coinbase and Robinhood as regulated trading and token settlement platforms, they said. Regulatory progress should also drive U.S. market share higher, reshore trading from offshore venues, and enable a domestic derivatives market for crypto futures and options, in their view.

The build-out of institutional crypto asset management is already underway, starting with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, likely expanding to Solana and active token funds covering the top 5 to 20 cryptocurrencies post-Clarity Act, they noted. At the same time, tokenization of financial assets — including money markets, equities, deposits, and credit — is expected to enable a fully onchain capital market with instant, 24/7 settlement and composability, they said.

Stablecoins, already critical to cross-border B2B and remittance payments, are expected to expand into mainstream payments over time as distribution and compliance frameworks mature, according to Bernstein.

Finally, these trends — tokenization, stablecoins, and broader blockchain adoption — are set to drive growth in networks like Ethereum and Solana, reinforcing their investment case and boosting trading revenues for Coinbase and Robinhood as the cycle broadens beyond Bitcoin, the analysts said.

"It is easy to dismiss the current cycle as yet another crypto bull market (another 2021!!). And you may call us 'believers' but we suspect, we may have crossed the 'belief' stage," Chhugani said. "We are seeing on-ground adoption and widespread integration with the traditional financial system, backed by regulation. You may want to err on the side of our belief this time."

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Bernstein and its affiliates may receive compensation for investment banking services from Circle. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the equity securities of Robinhood and Coinbase. [Bernstein]