UBS: Trump's Tariff Hike Delay Expected to Postpone Consumer Pressure to 2026

UBS chief economist Paul Donovan said that Trump's postponement of tariff increases to August 1 may mean that the impact of these new tariffs on prices will not be fully apparent before Christmas, but will be pushed back to 2026. He pointed out: "Considering that retailers usually stock up for Christmas in advance, and it takes the entire supply chain process for goods to go from production to shelves, even if the tariffs are implemented now, the time point when consumers actually feel the price increase may be later. This will undoubtedly reduce some of the impact on American consumers in the second half of the year." Avoiding the cost pressure brought by tariffs during the year-end shopping season is beneficial for the White House to avoid negative news. But Donovan also warned that no delay can completely prevent these tariffs from eventually being passed on to American families. He said: "This is actually a huge tax increase on American consumers. By the end of this year, real wages adjusted for inflation will begin to fall instead of rise, and that's when we'll see the problems really start to show." (Golden Ten) [Odaily Planet Daily]