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Capital Economics: Tariff uncertainty may delay Bank of Japan rate hike until 2026

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TechFlow
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Jul 8, 2025

On July 8, according to Jinshi Data, Capital Economics stated that the continued lack of clarity on tariff issues may delay the Bank of Japan's move to tighten monetary policy. The agency's basic forecast remains that Tokyo will reach an agreement with Washington to avoid the threat of a 25% tariff. If this happens soon, and does not increase tariff levels, or only moderately increases tariff levels, then the Bank of Japan's rationale for raising interest rates in October will not be shaken. The current inflation rate is much higher than the Bank of Japan's May forecast, and the Japanese economy has performed reasonably well so far. However, economist Marcel Thieliant said that any further delays in negotiations or a significant increase in tariffs may persuade the central bank to postpone the rate hike until next year. [Deep Tide TechFlow]

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