Citi: Tariff deadline may be a "non-event" for G10 foreign exchange, but focus on Japan

On July 3rd, according to Jinshi Data, Citi foreign exchange strategists believe that, to a large extent, the upcoming tariff negotiation deadline of July 9th may be an "inconsequential event" for G10 foreign exchange. On the EU side, Citi's basic forecast is that the two sides will reach a framework agreement before July 9th, at which time the 10% tariff rate will be extended and negotiations will continue. "Given the recent strength of the Euro, they speculate that such news will be slightly beneficial to the Euro, but not necessarily a major driver, as much of the good news is already reflected in the Euro's price." On the Japan issue, Citi believes that the possibility of reaching an agreement is declining given Trump's recent remarks. Citi said: "The risk of a tariff increase on Japan seems highest." The bank expects the USD/JPY to climb to 150 this summer, then fall below 140 later this year, as the Bank of Japan is expected to implement policy normalization and the Yen will regain its strength. [深潮 TechFlow]