Bitfinex Alpha: Bitcoin Typically Underperforms in Q3, Averaging a 6% Return

According to the Bitfinex Alpha report, Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, after rising nearly 50% from its April low of $74,600. The recent narrowing of price fluctuations reflects a cooling of on-chain and derivatives market activity, reduced spot trading volume, weakened buying pressure, and a decrease of over 7% in open interest, indicating that the market is transitioning from a strong upward trend to a volatile phase. The realized price for short-term holders is approximately $98,700, which has recently served as a key support level, attracting buying interest on multiple occasions. Looking ahead, historical data shows that Bitcoin typically performs weakly in the third quarter, with an average return of 6%, and further reductions in price volatility are expected, with the trend likely to continue in a range-bound manner. On the macroeconomic front, slowing US consumer spending coexists with high inflation, with personal income and spending both declining in May, and core inflation rising to 2.7%. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the short term has decreased, and the policy focus remains on balancing price stability with the risk of economic growth. [ChainCatcher]