Weekly Market Recap ☀️
Equities rally to new highs, Bitcoin surges, but altcoins lag behind.
Gold cools off, Fed holds steady, and ETFs fuel institutional flows.
Here’s what moved the markets 👇
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• Global Markets Weekly Recap 🏦
➡️ Global equity markets posted robust gains over the past week, with risk appetite surging and several indices reaching new highs.
• The Nasdaq 100 rallied from 21,834 on June 20 to 22,279 by June 25, reflecting a strong advance of about 2% as technology stocks led the charge.
• The S&P 500 also notched record levels, supported by momentum in large-cap stocks and optimism around corporate earnings; the index remains above 5,900, up over 2.6% week-over-week.
• In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 hovered near 5,188, slightly up by 0.5% over the week, though still off its May peak, as investors weighed ongoing fiscal and trade policy developments.
• Gold prices, meanwhile, softened as investors rotated into equities. After spiking to $3,391 per ounce amid geopolitical tensions, gold retreated to around $3,330 by June 26, marking a 1.4% weekly decline and four consecutive days of lower closes.
The retreat reflects waning safe-haven demand as a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East held, and US consumer confidence dipped. Year-over-year, however, gold remains up over 43%.
• Bitcoin rebounded sharply, climbing from $100,800 on June 23 to $107,000 on June 26—a gain of more than 6% in just three days.
This surge was underpinned by continued institutional inflows and renewed optimism in digital assets.
Bitcoin’s year-over-year appreciation stands at a remarkable 73.6%.
• The GMCI 30 ($GM30), an index of the top 30 digital assets, stands at 155 (-1.4%), revealing the comparative underperformance of more risk-on assets.
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• Macro Environment & Policy Developments 🔄
➡️ The macro landscape this week was shaped by a mix of economic data, policy signals, and ongoing peace talks.
• US economic releases painted a mixed picture: the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52, signaling moderate expansion, while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 93 (vs. 99.8 expected), reflecting persistent tariff uncertainty and a cooling labor market.
Initial jobless claims are expected to decline, but continuing claims remain elevated, suggesting prolonged unemployment spells.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance in congressional testimony, signaling no imminent rate cuts and highlighting the need to monitor inflation, tariffs, and global uncertainties.
Market expectations for rate cuts have moderated: futures now price in a 68% chance of a 25 bp cut by September, with fewer investors expecting multiple reductions this year.
In digital assets, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a 12-day streak of net inflows, totaling $3.9 billion, with June 25 alone seeing $547.7 million in new capital.
@BlackRock’s IBIT led with $340.3 million in daily inflows, underscoring robust institutional demand.
This sustained ETF activity has been a key driver behind Bitcoin’s recent price strength.
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• Sector-Specific Insights 🔍
➡️ While the crypto world gathered in Brooklyn for Permissionless IV, prediction markets made the news.
@Kalshi raised $185 million and @Polymarket is nearing a $200 million deal, both at billion-dollar valuations.
@Polymarket's recent integration with @X will make prediction markets available to a broader audience.
➡️ Crypto markets took a hit this week, with small caps declining the most.
• GMCI's Base Select Ecosystem index is down 14% compared to last week, while GMCI's flagship index, the GMCI 30, is down 1.4%.
Sentiment and capital attention have shifted toward stablecoins and crypto-adjacent equities, starving altcoins of capital inflows.
Will capital allocators stick to TradFi instruments to get crypto exposure?
Altcoins certainly face increased competition from products that did not exist in previous cycles.
We'll keep you posted on all developments, but feel free to follow our indices in real time.
See you next week!