Analysis: Cryptocurrency market enters seasonal slump, $BTC short-term implied volatility falls below 40%

Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital published an article stating that the Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady but maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that near-term inflation expectations remain high and tariffs are a major upside risk. Officials reiterated that they will take a wait-and-see approach, awaiting a clearer inflation path.

Despite views that a weak labor market would prompt a policy shift, the U.S. economy remains strong, with robust employment and consumption data. The crude oil market has reacted mildly to geopolitical news. Although U.S.-Iran tensions persist, oil prices have remained in a narrow range, and implied volatility has fallen from its highs.

The Trump administration has the incentive to push for an agreement with Iran before the election to avoid rising oil prices pushing up inflation and interest rates. Global trade tensions are escalating, with the U.S. having reached an agreement with only 1 of 195 potential trading partners before the EU tariff suspension period ends on July 9.

Key dates include: July 14, when the EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.; August 12, when the U.S.-China tariff suspension period ends; and August 31, when tariff exemptions on Chinese goods expire. These events may trigger market volatility, but U.S.-China trade negotiations are still expected to reach a stable outcome. The Cryptocurrency market has entered a seasonal slump, with $BTC short-term implied volatility falling below 40%, and put option premiums reflecting market caution. Month-end option expirations, rebalancing fund flows, and systemic deleveraging are dominating recent price action.