Analysis: Bitcoin shows resilience amid geopolitical tensions, but caution remains

Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin has shown resilience amid geopolitical tensions, rebounding from a weekly low of $102,800 triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict to above $107,000. The decline has narrowed to 3% compared to the 8% drop during a similar event in April 2024.

Institutional buying continues to be a key support factor—Metaplanet and MicroStrategy have been buying at the lows, and spot ETFs have seen net inflows for seven consecutive weeks. The $10 million psychological threshold has not been effectively breached.

From a broader perspective, the market has shown an unusually calm response to the rising geopolitical risks. Bitcoin's forward implied volatility remains below 40, while the Volatility Index (VIX) hovers around 20.

Given the current context, both levels are at historical lows. U.S. Treasury bonds and some Asian government bonds have seen inflows, indicating that the market has not fully shifted to a risk-off mode. However, caution remains. If the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded or the U.S. directly intervenes militarily, it could lead to a surge in oil prices and volatility in risk assets. Ironically, some believe these risks may structurally benefit Bitcoin. Bitcoin's current trading price is down by less than 6% from its all-time high, and recent price movements further reinforce this view: Bitcoin's adoption is being driven by macroeconomic misalignments, increased sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical fragility.