Background: The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have caused significant fluctuations in oil prices, yet Bitcoin prices have remained stable.
Main Event: Macro investor Raoul Pal pointed out that Bitcoin prices are primarily influenced by global liquidity (M2 money supply). Approximately 89% of Bitcoin price changes are correlated with changes in global liquidity, rather than geopolitical conflicts or news events.
Specific Performance: Despite Israel attacking Iran's energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to surge over 7% within hours, Bitcoin prices only rose slightly by 0.02%.
Impact and Significance: This perspective indicates that unless geopolitical events affect the global money supply, they will not alter Bitcoin's overall trend. Investors can predict Bitcoin price movements based on changes in global liquidity. In the short term, oil price and political volatility may cause price fluctuations but will not change the long-term direction.
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