📈Ithaca Protocol Market Update

► ‘The Trump/Musk relationship is fraying,’ it’s just ‘get popcorn at the ready,’ and it even has geopolitical implications; which side does Musk land on in the Russia/Ukraine conflict?

► Circle IPO 25x oversubscribed, what a journey this has been for the team (which mirrors crypto in many ways)

► ISM and ADP have provided a gloomy outlook for payrolls tomorrow; bonds caught a proper bid. ADP is a poor predictor of payrolls, but ISM services below 50, prices paid too high, new orders too low

► The two main risks here are US/China (and the market sees China having a bit of the upper hand, but not ready to wield it yet aggressively, rare earths issue subtle but painful), and OBBBA pushing yields beyond the 5% resistance

► Section 899 will be a focus every day for some time for everyone globally; capital flows impact will be meaningful and will play to dollar weakness