The "first share of stablecoin" has arrived, can Circle trigger the next crypto bull market?🤔

As the GENIUS stablecoin bill approaches implementation, $USDC issuer Circle is set to go public on Nasdaq on June 5, aiming to raise up to $896 million with an estimated valuation of $7.2 billion.

This IPO not only represents a window for compliance-based arbitrage but also marks stablecoin's official entry into the mainstream capital market.

It's worth noting that early investors including Accel, IDG, and General Catalyst will cash out in this round, while traditional giants like BlackRock and ARK are actively subscribing.

Circle has also adjusted its issuance structure, raising the number of shares from 24 million to 32 million, with a significantly higher self-issuance ratio, making the structure more stable.

Circle's fundamentals are quite attractive: revenue of $16.76 billion in 2024, net profit of $155 million, and $USDC market cap returning to over $600 billion. It has signed a four-year partnership with BlackRock, with $USDC reserves held by BlackRock at 90%, and BlackRock has also committed to not issuing its own stablecoin.

However, there are still concerns about the profit structure.

Coinbase's commission is as high as 50%, with annual payments exceeding $900 million; incentives for Binance are up to $60 million, with a requirement to maintain a $1.5 billion custody amount. If U.S. bond yields fall or partnership terms are adjusted, it will severely impact profit margins.

The IPO is priced at $27-28, corresponding to a P/E ratio of about 45, which is quite rational compared to Coinbase's valuation of 300 when it went public.

For retail investors, whether Circle is worth betting on depends on whether it can maintain compliance licenses amid global regulatory competition and continue to enhance $USDC's market share, truly delivering on the long-term value of "the first share of stablecoin".