Over the past week, Bitcoin retreated from around $110,200 to $105,400—a drop of approximately 4.4%—showing signs of high-level consolidation. Despite the pullback, the broader upward trend remains intact. Market participants expect a renewed push toward overhead resistance in the coming weeks to months, with potential to test the terminal target zone of $125,000 to $130,000.
Bitcoin’s realized volatility continues to decline, with high-frequency annualized volatility dipping slightly above 30% last week. Tight spot price consolidation has exerted downward pressure on implied volatility as well. Options traders are engaging in straddle-like strategies—simultaneously selling calls and puts near the current price level—to harvest range-bound premium. This positioning has created a "long Gamma" environment, where volatility is being suppressed by market hedging flows.
Last week, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the Trump administration’s tariffs—imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—were unlawful. The decision briefly lifted risk assets during mid-week trading. However, the equity rally that began in early April is showing signs of fatigue, with limited momentum for further upside. Meanwhile, cross-asset volatility has fallen to fresh lows, indicating a decline in risk appetite and lighter positioning across markets.
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