Google says quantum resources needed to crack Bitcoin may be 20 times less than previously estimated

According to Decrypt, Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney published a paper stating that the quantum resources required to break 2048-bit RSA encryption (similar in principle to Bitcoin wallet encryption) have decreased by 20 times compared to the 2019 prediction.

The new study shows that a quantum computer with fewer than one million noisy qubits can complete the cracking within a week, whereas it was previously estimated to require 20 million. This breakthrough is attributed to algorithm optimization and improvements in error correction technology. Currently, the most advanced IBM Condor quantum computer has only 1,121 qubits and poses no real threat yet, but IBM plans to launch a 100,000-qubit model by 2033, and Quantinuum aims to achieve full fault tolerance by 2029.

The cryptocurrency sector has already begun working on quantum-resistant solutions; Solana is developing a quantum vault, and Vitalik has proposed a fork to address the threat. Notably, the quantum research organization Project 11 has established an $85,000 prize, offering a bounty to teams that use quantum computers to crack a simplified Bitcoin encryption (25-bit key) to assess the urgency of the threat.

The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology released post-quantum cryptography standards last year recommending the gradual phase-out of vulnerable systems after 2030, but Google's research suggests this timeline may need to be moved forward.