🚀 Where are we now, where are we headed, and where should we invest? A peek into the venture market of 2025 from Sam Lessin at Slow Ventures.

According to Lessin, the venture landscape and startups are in crisis mode. Here’s why:

1. **The Fall of the Venture Factory Model**
Lessin claims the traditional venture investment model that's thrived for over 20 years is toast for 4 key reasons:
- No love from public markets for "unicorns." 🦄
- Public markets aren't paying a premium for tech firms raking in $1-10B anymore.
- Big tech firms (think Microsoft, Amazon) have been revalued.
- Private markets kept the best assets and sent IPO junk out to pasture.
- Way too many pseudo-tech companies got hyped up valuations (hello DTC, telemedicine, micromobility).

2. **Loss of Clarity in Private Markets**
- Without clear metrics or valuation benchmarks, the market's lost its way. 🤔
- Early-stage founders could see their capital wiped even if their company is thriving.
- Enter "cramdown" – forced declines in valuation.

3. **Founder & Investor Fatigue**
- LP investors aren’t waiting around 10+ years for returns anymore.
- The quality of startup founders has dipped with no 'safe path' to riches.
- Top talent is shying away from startup risks. 😬

4. **AI’s Impact on the Market**
- AI makes software less secure and less profitable.
- Scale effects are fading; investment moats around software companies are eroding.
- Tech commoditization is ramping up.

**Lessin’s Tips for Seed Investors:**
- Steer clear of AI-centric companies and those needing multi-round funding.
- Focus on capital efficiency over scalability.
- Prioritize financial optionality; companies should pivot to ace their next funding round.
- Patience is key! Only partner with founders who love what they do and get this new reality.

**Where to Invest?**
Lessin spots a few promising avenues:
1. Platforms for small businesses (reviving Main Street).
2. "Business-in-a-box" / new type franchises.
3. Non-network lifestyle businesses (SaaS for a realistic future).
4. Cryptocurrencies (a bright spot with potential for the next big platform shift).

[Lessin believes the venture world ](https://t.co/aL6dovHElD)is going back to its roots—supporting niche, profitable businesses instead of chasing global unicorns. 🌍✨ AI will be an "augmenting innovation" that strengthens existing platforms (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta – not so much in Russia), rather than birthing new giants, making traditional venture funding ineffective in tomorrow's world.