The Illusion of Cheap-Looking Tokens
Tokens can appear "cheap" when their price and market cap are small. However, if the FDV is significantly higher, this perception can be misleading. Here's what you should watch for:
- Large FDV vs. Market Cap Gap
When FDV is 8 to 10 times larger than market cap, it indicates that many tokens are still locked. As they unlock, the circulating supply increases. Without matching demand, the $token’s price can face strong downward pressure.
- $Token Release Schedules
Many early-stage projects start with only a small fraction of their supply in circulation. Upcoming unlocks for teams, investors, or rewards can create large selling pressures if not carefully planned.
- Tokenomics Risk
Overlooking the impact of FDV during $token launch and emissions planning can jeopardize the long-term health of a project. Unchecked supply growth risks undermining $token value, disincentivizing participation, and weakening the sustainability of the entire ecosystem.
Real Example
Imagine a $token priced at $1:
• Circulating supply: 10 million → Market Cap = $10 million
• Total supply: 100 million → FDV = $100 million
If only 10 percent of the supply is live today, 90 million tokens are still to be released. Without strong adoption and demand growth, future supply can dilute the value of tokens held by existing holders.
Key takeaway:
Market Cap and FDV are crucial for understanding the $token economy's sustainability and price dynamics. Healthy ecosystems manage $token unlocks to align supply growth with actual demand and utility.