
Impossible to be bearish on crypto when it’s rapidly becoming the macro trade of our era.

The world may not fully realize it yet, but we’re not waiting for them to catch up.

Factor is laying the rails to connect TradFi, DeFi, and AI for the next era of Web3 infrastructure.


Three macro catalysts for crypto investors to watch.

1) Tariff-driven recession

US Q1 GDP at -0.3% (consensus was +0.03%). Polymarket odds of 2025 recession at 69%. This could reverse, but recession currently looks likely.

Unknown: How severe, and how long?

Overall: Negative for crypto in the short term, but this could be offset by the next two catalysts.

2) American capital flight trade

If US stocks, bonds, and the dollar continue to decline, while gold, Bitcoin, and other crypto assets rise, it indicates rebalancing away from America as the global store of value toward alternative assets.

Unknown: Will this shift happen quickly or gradually?

Overall: Positive for crypto in the medium and long term. This aligns with the decades-long thesis that crypto offers a credible, neutral alternative for money and property rights.

3) Increasing global money supply

Fiat money supply (e.g., global M2) is expanding as countries respond to these headwinds by printing more money. Many indicators suggest we're heading toward another money canon bonanza.

Unknown: Magnitude and precise timing?

Overall: Positive for crypto. This is another long-term thesis playing out.

Impossible to be bearish

Consider all three catalysts: 1, 2, and 3.

Add in factors like AI—do you think AIs will use gold, Wells Fargo, and Delaware LLCs as their monetary systems, or will they just adopt crypto?

Impossible to be bearish on crypto.

The world will catch on.