Opinion: US Government's Budget-Neutral Path Could Unleash Up to $874B in Structural Bitcoin Buying

According to OKG Research, White House advisor Bo Hines recently mentioned a "budget-neutral Bitcoin purchase" plan. OKG Research systematically reviewed five possible paths, including tariff revenue reallocation, gold revaluation, asset tokenization, unused budget recovery, and pension fund allocation guidance, estimating a potential release scale ranging from $764B to over $874B.

Under the market multiplier effect (2x–5x), this could drive Bitcoin's market cap to increase by $1.5T–$4.4T. If calculated based on actual active circulation, the theoretical price anchor for Bitcoin could be reset to $207,000–$398,000 per coin. OKG Research believes that budget neutrality is not merely a fiscal technique, but a institutional precursor to the sovereign structure re-anchoring the value of digital assets; the expectation itself already has the ability to re-evaluate pricing.

🚨Budget-Neutral Buying: How the US Can Reshape the BTC Valuation Anchor Without Expanding the Fiscal Deficit

Recently, White House advisor @BoHines stated that the government is exploring the establishment of a national-level Bitcoin reserve through a "budget-neutral" approach – without increasing taxes or debt, but simply by reallocating existing fiscal resources.

OKG Research has identified 5 feasible paths, estimated their potential for capital release, and further deduced the systemic impact that this type of structural buying could have on the Bitcoin market 👇👇

🧾 Five Budget-Neutral Strategies and Potential Release Amounts:

1️⃣ Tariff Revenue Reallocation (Mentioned by Bo Hines): $7B – $70B
2️⃣ Gold Certificate Revaluation to Release Liquidity (Mentioned by Bo Hines): $500B
3️⃣ Tokenization of State-Owned Assets (Theoretical Path): $12.5B – $50B
4️⃣ Recovery of Unused Budget Funds (Theoretical Path): $5.6B – $34B
5️⃣ Pension Fund Asset Allocation Guidance (Theoretical Path): $220B+

📌 Total Potential BTC Buying Volume Under Budget-Neutral Strategies: $764B – $874B+

📊 Market Multiplier Effect: Buying ≠ Market Cap, the Key Lies in "Valuation Reset + Liquidity Boost"

For BTC, every $1 of net inflow can potentially bring 2 to 5 times the market cap growth, stemming from liquidity slippage and valuation repricing mechanisms.

Multiplying the $764B–$874B of inflow funds by a market multiplier of 2x–5x, it is estimated that the total market cap of Bitcoin could be increased from the current approximately $1.65T to:

$3.2T – $6.0T

🧮 Potential Price Range Estimated Based on Actual Active Circulation:

Effective Active BTC Supply ≈ 15.2M (deducting Satoshi Nakamoto addresses, lost coins, and accounts inactive for 5+ years)

Corresponding Price Range:

$207,237 – $398,026 / coin

✅ OKG Research Opinion:

"Budget neutrality" is not only a fiscal tool, but also a structural force that is reshaping asset pricing mechanisms and sovereign reserve logic.

These structural capital inflows do not mean "buying up the entire market," but they will re-anchor the valuation system of market consensus.

In the new fiscal structure paradigm, Bitcoin may become an anchor asset on sovereign balance sheets.

📌 Core Assumptions Supplementary Notes:
1.  Tariff Path: US is expected to have ~$700B in tariff revenue in 2025, assuming 1%–10% of which is used to purchase BTC.
2.  Gold Certificate Revaluation: Treasury gold is still recorded at $42.22/oz, while the current price is ~$3,200. If revalued and 10% is released, the corresponding liquidity would be approximately $500B.
3.  Asset Tokenization: According to data from the US Department of Transportation, the total estimated value of infrastructure is approximately $2.5T. If 0.5%–2% of future toll rights are tokenized, $12.5B–$50B could be released.
4.  Recovery of Budget Funds: A CBO report shows that unused budget funds amount to $1.129T. If 10% (~$113B) is recovered, and 5%–30% of that is allocated to BTC, that would be $5.6B–$34B.
5.  Pension Fund Allocation Guidance: Total US pension fund assets are approximately $44.1T (ICI data). If 0.5% is guided towards BTC allocation, the potential capital release would be $220B or more.

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