[Block Trade Daily Report: $BTC Long-Short Options Strategy & Divergent Expectations]

Current Price: $84,428.99 (DVOL: 56.11)

Key Options Trades:
Bought 100x 26SEP25-115000-C:
1. A long-term bullish position, betting that $BTC will surpass $115,000 by late September. This reflects optimism around post-halving liquidity easing. However, with implied volatility at elevated levels, the breakeven price is significantly higher—introducing substantial vega risk.
2. Sold mid- and short-term ATM calls:
Suggests institutional skepticism about $BTC breaking through immediate resistance. It implies a belief that the recent spike in short-term IV is unsustainable.
3. Sold 150x 25APR25-82000-P:
Premiums are being harvested from near-term, OTM puts (strike 2.9% below spot), signaling market confidence in $82,000 as a short-term support level. The collected premium is likely being reinvested into near-dated bullish positions—forming a cross-term risk reversal with net bullish exposure.

Strategic Rationale:
Cross-Term Positioning – "Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Range-Bound":
Far-dated calls express optimism driven by potential macro tailwinds (e.g., anticipated rate cuts), while short-dated put/call structures hedge against downside risks from miner selling and policy uncertainty.
Volatility Arbitrage Play:
With short-term IV elevated (DVOL at 56.11), institutions are leveraging calendar spread strategies—selling short-dated IV and buying long-dated IV—to capitalize on term-structure dislocations in implied volatility.