Analysis: The OAS indicator has retreated from its recent highs, providing short-term support for a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and the Nasdaq.

According to a report by CoinDesk on March 21, as a key indicator of economic sentiment and corporate credit health, the ICE/BofA U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) has pulled back from recent highs, supporting a resurgence in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency and stock markets. However, analysts believe this relief may be short-lived.

The OAS measures the average yield spread between U.S. dollar-denominated high-yield corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries, adjusted for embedded options in the bonds. This metric is widely regarded as a barometer of credit risk, with an expanding spread typically indicating increased investor concerns about corporate defaults or economic weakness.

Currently, the OAS has decreased from a six-month high of 3.4% at the beginning of this month to 3.2%, supporting a rebound in Bitcoin ($BTC) and the Nasdaq. Previously, the spread surged by 100 basis points over four weeks to mid-March, as concerns over a recession triggered by Trump's tariff policies caused Bitcoin to fall below 80 thousand dollars, severely impacting the Nasdaq as well.

However, analysts expect that as the negative effects of Trump’s tariff policies gradually emerge, the OAS spread will widen further in the coming weeks. Hans Mikkelsen, Managing Director of Credit Strategy at TD Securities, stated in a recent client report: "We believe this is just the beginning; things will get worse before they get better."

From a technical analysis perspective, the OAS has broken through a three-year downward trend line, which is a strong warning signal for investors in risk assets.