Monians, let’s kick off the week with a new research 🔎
Meet the first Ethereum-based futarchy platform @_futarchy.
Top 2 early-stage project this month on Moni Discover.

@HONKA_YO has prepared some material for you about this project, the team, and more.
Dive in👇
Brief Overview

Futarchy is the first Ethereum-based futarchy platform, built to leverage market dynamics for governance, decision-making, and maximizing shareholder value.

Unlike traditional prediction markets that estimate probabilities, Futarchy creates conditional markets that assess the direct impact of proposals on an organization’s share price, allowing decisions to be guided by data-backed projections.

🕵️‍♂️ Discovered: 10 Nov 2024
👾 Moni Score: 662
🧠 Smart Followers: 53 incl. @0xfoobar, @gmoneyNFT, @0xMaki, @ercwl, @tarunchitra and @Shaughnessy119

Meet the Futarchy Team:

• kas.eth/@azsantosk - Founder
• Robin Hanson/@robinhanson - Chief Scientist

Backed by:
@GnosisDAO and Martin Köppelmann (@koeppelmann), pioneers in Ethereum prediction markets.

Addressing Key Challenges in DAO Governance

1. Unaligned Incentives
In DAOs, insiders (founders, early investors) dominate decisions, leaving outside investors and contributors without real influence or protections. Futarchy allows all stakeholders to participate actively, making proposals more impactful and inclusive.

2. Limited Outside Participation
External contributors often have little incentive to propose ideas. Futarchy’s mechanism promotes diverse input by rewarding impactful proposals, attracting outside voices and new ideas.

3. Missed Opportunities
Traditional governance can miss valuable input due to limited incentives for participation. Futarchy addresses this by creating a platform where new ideas are evaluated and rewarded effectively, encouraging wider participation.

How Futarchy Works: Conditional Markets and Decision Impact

Futarchy uses conditional markets to forecast the outcomes of proposals. Here’s a step-by-step on how it works:

• Creating Conditional Markets:
For each proposal, two markets are created:
○ One market estimates the share price if the proposal passes.
○ The other estimates the share price if it fails.
The price difference reflects the projected impact of the proposal.

• Buy or Sell Instead of Vote:
Investors show support by buying shares if the proposal passes and selling if they oppose it. This approach allows trading actions to reveal the true market sentiment toward the proposal.

• Market-Based Decision Making:
The proposal is recommended if the market predicts a higher share price with its approval. This process allows the decision to be driven by the market’s collective evaluation, potentially replacing traditional voting.

• From Advisory to Self-Enforcing:
Initially, Futarchy acts as an advisory tool alongside governance systems. Over time, it can evolve into a fully self-enforcing decision-making model where the highest predicted value outcomes are implemented directly.

Futher Interactive Use Case for Futarchy: How to Engage

Frictionless Onboarding:
Futarchy enables new users to participate without requiring pre-installed wallets or gas tokens. Using EIP-7702 and EIP-5792, users can create a wallet on the platform without custom RPC settings or external extensions.

1) Creating a Wallet:
Sign up, name your wallet, and click “Create.”
A smart contract wallet is generated for you, credited with testnet tokens.

2) Simulate Proposal Interaction:
Select a proposal, and use tokens to “buy” or “sell” shares based on whether you think the proposal will be beneficial or not.

3) Evaluate Market Signals:
Monitor the price differences between the “pass” and “fail” markets to understand the proposal's projected impact.

4) Swap Tokens:
Exchange your tokens within the platform to explore the implications of your decisions without needing an external bridge.

You can apply for early access by filling out the form on their website: https://t.co/N5wTPXuwKU

Moni’s Thoughts:
Futarchy aims to build a larger, interconnected network of conditional markets, creating a global “map” of knowledge on how various decisions and policies influence the economy.

These interconnected prediction markets may redefine governance, allowing data-backed insights to guide decision-making across different sectors.

Long-Term Vision:

Futarchy’s objective is not only to implement a new governance model but also to transform how organizations aggregate and act on market-based information.

By connecting decision markets, Futarchy envisions a future where market-based governance becomes a standard tool for organizations, providing them with a reliable mechanism to make informed, impact-driven decisions.

That's it, Monians
But remember, you always need to do your own research. NFA.
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Lots of love, Moni 💜