🚨 Truflation February BLS CPI FORECAST: 2.8% YoY
Inflation is expected to decline slightly, continuing the trend we predicted in January. But risks are mounting...
🔥 Tariffs Are a Big Wildcard – Trade tensions with China, Mexico & Canada could add 0.5%-1.0% to inflation, making essentials like food, fuel & housing more expensive.
💳 Consumers Are Tapping Out – Personal spending fell for the first time since 2021, while savings ticked up. Retail sales and consumer confidence both took a hit.
🏡 Housing Pressures Persist – High mortgage rates are slowing home sales, but prices keep rising (+4.8% YoY). Rent inflation remains stagnant, but utilities are surging.
⏳ Fed Stuck in Limbo? – Markets expect three rate cuts in 2025, but March 19th’s meeting is crucial. The Fed may wait for more signs of cooling inflation before acting.
Short-Term Dip, Long-Term Uncertainty – Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, with potential stagflationary shocks if growth weakens and prices stay high.
🎙️ Don't miss the conversation between Stefan and Oliver Rust where they break down our CPI forecast and inflation outlook! (Link in first comment).
🪪 Premium Subscribers: The full CPI report & analysis is available on the Truflation Webpage in the Member Dashboard.
Whichever the outcome, we will be reporting in real-time the impact of these events on inflation...
So you can stay informed.🤝