UBS Group's chief economist, Arend Kapteyn, has identified tariffs as the most significant threat to the global economic outlook. UBS forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.9% this year, down from approximately 3.2% in 2024. The continuation of Trump's proposed tariff policies could revert U.S. trade restrictions to levels not seen since the 1930s, potentially introducing further downside risks to economic forecasts. Despite these concerns, Kapteyn doubts the implementation of global tariffs due to legal complexities.

PANews reported on January 9 that Arend Kapteyn, chief economist of UBS Group, said that tariffs are the biggest risk to the global economic outlook. UBS predicts that global economic growth will slow to 2.9% this year from about 3.2% in 2024. If Trump continues to implement the tariff policy he proposed during his campaign, this could bring "the level of U.S. trade restrictions back to levels we haven't seen since the mid-1930s." He added: "If these tariffs are actually imposed, there may be a lot of additional downside risks to our forecasts." However, Kapteyn is skeptical about whether global tariffs will be implemented because it is tricky at the legal level.

UBS: Tariffs Pose Major Risk to Global Economic Growth