UBS economists have indicated that the CPI data for September will be crucial. If the pace of price increases exceeds expectations, coupled with strong labor data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking no action at the November meeting will increase. According to the data, the chances of the Fed cutting rates next month have declined from 33% to zero. Therefore, the CPI reading on Thursday has gained importance regarding the Fed's next steps.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that UBS economist Brian Rose stated in a report last Friday that the CPI for September will be a key data point. If the rate of price increases exceeds expectations, coupled with strong labor data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve remaining on hold during the November meeting will increase. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed lowering rates by 50 basis points next month fell from 33% to zero after the September employment report was released, and traders are not even fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut. Therefore, Thursday's CPI reading has become increasingly significant for the Federal Reserve's next move.

UBS: If CPI data does not meet expectations, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve staying put will increase.