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Citi Trader: Expecting deeper rate cuts, estimating three 50 basis point rate cuts within the year.

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TechFlow
632Words
Sep 6, 2024

TechFlow News: U.S. stock index futures fell as traders awaited non-farm payroll data, with expectations of a rebound in August employment numbers and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. S&P 500 index futures dropped nearly 0.5%, poised for a fourth consecutive day of decline; Nasdaq 100 index futures fell by 0.8%, while Dow futures declined by almost 0.3%. Concerns about an economic slowdown prompted a retreat in risk assets this week, with the 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to policy changes, falling by 18 basis points since Tuesday.

Interest rate swap contracts fully reflect a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in two weeks, with a one-third probability of a 50 basis point cut.

However, Citigroup traders anticipate a more aggressive rate cut, expecting three 50 basis point cuts by the end of the year. "Risk markets are currently more sensitive to growth dynamics than interest rates," said Bilal Hafeez, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. "If the data weakens, risk markets such as the stock market will suffer a heavy blow."

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