Outlier Ventures: Bitcoin performs poorly after halving, the four-year cycle theory may have ended

According to The Block's report on September 4th, Jasper De Maere, the research director of the Web3 accelerator Outlier Ventures, released a report stating that Bitcoin's price performance after the latest halving event is the worst in history, and investors should abandon the concept of a four-year cycle.

Data shows that Bitcoin's price dropped by about 8% in the 125 days after this halving, while in the same period after previous halvings, it increased by 739% (2012), 10% (2016), and 22% (2020) respectively. De Maere believes that 2016 was the last time the halving had a significant impact on Bitcoin's price, and since then, miner block rewards have become insignificant in the increasingly mature and diversified crypto market.

Despite Bitcoin hitting a new high of $73,836 on March 14th this year, De Maere stated that this was mainly driven by factors such as the approval of spot ETFs and is unrelated to the halving. He emphasized that founders and investors need to better understand market drivers to predict funding opportunities.

Outlier Ventures believes that rejecting the four-year cycle theory does not mean being pessimistic about the overall market, but calls for a reassessment of traditional market cycle theories within the industry.