Background: Over the past 18 months, Bitcoin's price has shown a significant correlation with the M2 money supply. Abra Global CEO and analyst Raoul Pal, among others, have utilized this correlation to predict Bitcoin's price trends.

Key Events: Abra Global CEO Bill Barhydt predicts that Bitcoin's price will pull back to 100 thousand USD in the short term, then reach a new all-time high of 130 thousand USD between August and September this year. Recently, Bitcoin experienced an 8% correction, dropping to approximately 103 thousand USD, yet this remains consistent with historical trends. May is typically a bullish month for Bitcoin, with an average growth rate of 19%.

Potential Impact: As the global M2 money supply hits historic highs and economies lean toward loose monetary policies, Bitcoin, as a risk asset, is expected to benefit. Additionally, some U.S. states have passed legislation to include Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, and Congress plans to promote related legislation, enhancing Bitcoin's appeal. Although some companies like Meta and Microsoft have not adopted Bitcoin as a reserve asset, more firms such as GameStop have incorporated it into their balance sheets.

Special Note: The article mentions viewpoints from Abra's CEO, in accordance with SoSoValue's content retention requirements.

HIGHLIGHTS Over last 18 months , Bitcoin price has exhibited notable co-relation with and M2 Money Supply. Many analysts including Abra CEO and Raoul Pal have used M2 Money supply to predict BTC moves. Bitcoin is predicted to correct to $100k and then bounce back to $130k around August/September this year. The correction that Bitcoin (BTC) suffered over the past 24 hours has triggered conversations around its correlation with the M2 Money supply. Analysts like Raoul pal and Abra CEO are using Bitcoin Vs M2 money supply co-relation to predict Bitcoin price.&nbsp;
Bitcoin to $130k in August/September This Year?
Abra Global CEO Bill Barhydt shared his analysis on the rising Bitcoin Vs M2 money supply trend via via his X account. The consensus is that with the growth in the global money supply, risk-on assets like BTC benefit significantly. The concept is simple: the more money in circulation, the more devalued fiat is, granting emerging hedges like Bitcoin more value.


According to him, most trending charts predict a short-term bearish outlook. He most likely highlighted the likelihood of Bitcoin price dropping to $100,000 in the coming days before it pushed to a new all-time high of $130,000 in August/September.&nbsp;&nbsp;
As Barhydt noted, there are many reasons to believe this outcome. Though silent on these reasons, the institutional adoption, like the recent Strategy purchase of 4020 BTC, is helping to drive scarcity.

No matter the price direction, the Abra CEO believes Bitcoin will take advantage of its status as the mother of all liquidity. The conversation around the Bitcoin and M2 money supply correlation is controversial. While some believe the M2 liquidity does not always determine the BTC price direction, some maintain that the pattern has never failed when profiled on longer timeframes.

Despite the 8% BTC price correction, which dropped to $103,000 overnight, the top coin is just halfway through the bullish cycle of the money supply. At least for the next four weeks, the top coin will likely continue its upward surge.
Bitcoin Price History And M2 Money Supply
Despite the drawdown the coin has recorded in the past 24 hours, it is still conforming to its historical trend. May is historically a bullish month for Bitcoin, with an average growth rate of 19%.&nbsp;

Per Cryptorank data, BTC has maintained a 10% upsurge thus far this month, with the latest selloff not impacting long-term investors. At the time of writing, the coin was changing hands for $104,402.78, up marginally by 0.17% in 24 hours.

As reported earlier by CoinGape, Bitcoin hit an ATH of $111,970 on May 22. This latest selloff is its most significant correction since then. However, the monthly chart from Cryptorank shows a relatively bullish June ahead. 

To align with the M2 Money Supply projections, if history aligns, BTC may bounce back from its latest selloff. As of mid-2025, global M2 is at all-time highs (~$111T+). Economies (especially the U.S. and China) are turning dovish again due to recession risks and debt servicing needs. If M2 keeps rising, Bitcoin historically follows—with a lag.
Bitcoin Is Now Globally Accepted
It is worth noting that the perception of BTC is changing beyond an asset. Private and public companies pushing to hold to one nation-state are now profiling. At the moment, at least three States in America have passed Bills to add BTC as a strategic reserve asset.

Amid the growing development, Senator Cynthia Lummis has confirmed that Congress will focus on the BTC reserve bill after the GENIUS Act stablecoin Bill is passed. These moves are coordinated to boost the attractiveness of the top coin.

However, not every corporation is sold on the Bitcoin dream. Earlier, the Meta board voted against BTC as a reserve asset, joining Microsoft. Despite this setback, more firms like GameStop have added Bitcoin to their balance sheet.

Analysis of the Correlation Between Bitcoin Price and M2 Money Supply and Future Trend Forecast