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Bank of America: If non-farm payroll data meets expectations, risk assets may rebound.

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#Macro
Odaily
526Words
Oct 4, 2024

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett stated that if the U.S. non-farm payroll report released on Friday falls within expectations, risk assets may rebound. The strategist indicated that if the data shows an increase of 125 thousand to 175 thousand jobs in the U.S. last month, it would support the notion of an economic soft landing and keep bond yields within a range, thereby triggering risk-taking trades. Hartnett noted that bulls are "in control" and that "conclusive signs" suggest that China’s stimulus measures are "taking effect," with the Federal Reserve likely to ease policies further. The strategist added that if non-farm employment exceeds 225 thousand and the unemployment rate is below 4.1%, this would push the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield above 4.5%. Conversely, if it is below 75 thousand and the unemployment rate is above 4.3%, it would imply a "recession." (Jin Shi)

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